As one of two meteorologists working (oddly enough) for Backcountry.com, Dina Freedman often gets asked for snow forecasts. At the beginning of the season, we asked her for explanations of el Niño, and to predict what it would mean for powder hounds around the country. Now that we’re (theoretically) through the season, we need your help to see if Dina’s predictions held up.
What is El Niño, anyway?
It’s El Niño, and it’s back. If you were around in the late ’90s trying to ski in New England, you heard a lot of things blamed on El Niño. I’m not a big fan of blaming your troubles on the weather, but in that case, it was a valid claim.
El Niño is a warming in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Think ocean, off the coast of South America, near the equator. When this water reaches above-average readings, it goofs everything up. Any large-scale change in ocean water temperatures changes the air around it; you change that air, you change the flow around it, and you change the weather.
Here’s an NOAA image from back in November, which shows sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs for short):
Surface Temperature Anamolies
Current Image: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif
The Predictions:
The Climate Prediction Center expected El Niño to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere during winter. Expected impacts were forecasted in November 2009 and included:
|
Parts of the Pacific NW |
Below Average Precipitation |
|
Northern Rockies |
Below Average Precipitation |
|
Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest |
Above Average Temperatures |
Temperature Predictions
Precipitation Predictions
The big question here was, how strong would El Niño get? Climatologists predicted this year’s to be similar to 2005’s. Comparing snowfall totals during El Niño years at Alta is a good start to see historically how big of an effect El Niño has had on Utah snowfall.
| El Niño Years | Snowfall Totals at Alta (in) |
| 1969-1970 | 368.50 |
| 1972-1973 | 259.70 |
| 1988 | 468.70 |
| 1997-1998 | 602.70 |
| 2002-2003 | 364.30 |
| 2004-2005 | 470.80 |
| 2006-2007 | 401.5 |
Graph: info from the Western Region Climate Center
Overall Alta Average:
510.6 (Western Region Climate Center) (Period of record includes 3/17/1905-8/31/2009, includes all months)
El Niño Average:
419.5 inches (derived from sample set above)
2009/10 to Date:
As of 3/19/2010 : 374 inches
Updated information can be found http://www.alta.com/pages/snowhistory.php#avg
Additional information: March is typically the biggest snow month of the year; in winter of 2009, over 100 inches fell in a 10-day period, late March to early April.
Conclusions:
Here in Utah, El Niño has had a significant effect in northern Utah (dry) and brought high snow totals to the southern half of the states. Currently, the image below clearly shows persistent SST warming in the equatorial pacific:
Current Surface Temperature Anomalies
Image from http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
For the Northern Hemisphere spring, El Niño continues. Models are decreasing the strength and showing sea surface temperatures retreating toward neutral conditions for summer. However, uncertainty exists for the fall and winter of next year—whether we will go into a neutral year or a La Niña.
As of now, the predictions made for a lower-than-average season look like they line up. March isn’t over yet, but just perusing models right now, I see that the forecast through the end of the month doesn’t show much chance of getting 100 inches of snow.
2010 Weather Weirdness
Winter 2010 featured ‘Snowmageddon’ in the mid-Atlantic US with two blizzards affecting the DC metro area. Seasonal snowfall in DC measured 56.1 inches, making it the snowiest season on record.
February 2010 featured only ONE tornado, which happened in Taft, California. The last time this happened was January 2003. We can learn a lot from comparing climate records of the past and making future predictions for certain times of the year. The year 2003 later featured deadly tornado events in the Midwest; it was especially tragic after a very slow start.
February in Boston featured average minimum temperatures about 3.5 degrees above normal and 4 inches below normal for snow.
Patrick Marsh, a graduate student at Oklahoma University, started the Snowshot of America photo collection. Snow on the ground in all 50 states on one given day in February, a rare event.
http://www.patricktmarsh.com/snow-shot-of-america/
What’s next?
El Niño continues through spring and trends toward neutral this summer. Models are showing above average precipitation for Utah with above average temperatures for spring. You can get a daily update of El Niño conditions and read the forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
What’s Your Take?
Has it been a weird winter of weather in your neck of the woods? Or has it been the same winter weather you usually experience?
Related Posts:
Tags: outdoor survival, weather
Yeah, Dina. Nice work.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
I think it’s safe to say we’re having a “weird” (a.k.a. “shitty”) snow year in the Wasatch. This was helpful in distracting me from wanton homicide though, so there’s that. Srsly thanks…it sucks to blame something for your unhappiness without even knowing what it really is.
Spanish for “the Niño”.
JMB
Like or Dislike:
0 
0